Israel Attacks Iran

A breathtaking attack that changes the equation

Iran suffered a major defeat last night as Israel initiated a wave of attacks that is staggering in both scope and strategic depth. In contrast to Israel’s limited strikes last April—when the IAF hit a small number of Iranian air defense sites—the current attacks are likely to impact Iran in ways that are still hard to fathom.

The list of strikes alone suggests how extraordinary this moment is. Israel is reporting that the Natanz facility, Iran’s primary nuclear enrichment complex, has been destroyed. Iran’s three top military officials—IRGC chief Hossein Salami, military chief of staff Mohammad Bagheri, and IRGC Emergency Command head Gholam-Ali Rashid—are reportedly dead. The country’s leading nuclear scientists have been killed. Most of the senior leadership of the Iranian Air Force was killed in an underground command center.

There are reports of ballistic missile production facilities being hit. A site in Tabriz—home to an Iranian Air Force base and a ballistic missile storage facility—was targeted. There are also reports that Shiraz Air Base, which hosts IRGC missile and drone facilities, is coming under attack.

At the time of writing, Israeli strikes on Iran were still underway. IDF spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin stated earlier: “The operation is only beginning.”

In Israel, people are bracing for war. “The streets are empty but the supermarkets are full,” a source told me, as citizens prepare for days in shelters. Numerous sources reported a “buzz” in the air in Israeli cities—a tense but resilient atmosphere. Sirens wailed across Israel at 3 a.m., with emergency alerts advising people to stay near shelters. In an unusual move, both active-duty soldiers and reservists were mobilized in person—IDF officers reportedly appeared at their homes at 3 a.m. and instructed them to leave their phones behind.

What’s stunning is not just the scale of the attacks, but how they were implemented. The first wave of strikes against Iranian air defense systems was carried out by Mossad commandos who had infiltrated deep inside Iran. Three separate Mossad missions were launched: one to destroy Iran’s precision-guided surface-to-air missile systems; another to cripple air defense infrastructure; and a third to deploy explosive drones against Iranian ground-to-ground missile systems prepared for retaliation.

These drones had been prepositioned inside Iran, lying dormant until activated during the operation.

This comes less than a year after Israel assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, planting a bomb in a supposedly secure Iranian government guesthouse. Haniyeh had traveled to Tehran to attend the inauguration of Iran’s new president, following the death of former president Raisi in a helicopter crash—the only aircraft in his convoy to go down.

That Israel was able to operate so freely within Iran speaks to its current dominance over a longtime adversary. Overnight, 200 IAF fighter jets reportedly flew missions over Iran with impunity. As far as is known, not a single Israeli jet was downed. This is partly due to Israel’s earlier precision strikes in April 2024, which disabled key elements of Iran’s air defense network in response to a mass drone and missile barrage launched by Tehran.

That barrage had itself been a retaliation for the killing of several senior Iranian generals in Syria by Israeli F-35s, including the commander of the IRGC’s Quds Force.

A year ago, even a single one of these events would have seemed unthinkable. For years, the consensus within Israel held that any attack on Iran’s strategic infrastructure would provoke Hezbollah into launching thousands of rockets on Israeli cities. But today, Hezbollah has publicly declared it will not intervene. The reason is simple: Hezbollah—once the Middle East’s most feared paramilitary force—has been decimated. Its top leadership, including its iconic former head Hassan Nasrallah and his successor, have been killed. Thousands of its operatives have been incapacitated by Israeli “beeper” attacks. Its arsenal has been systematically degraded by repeated Israeli airstrikes.

What we’re seeing is a once-fearsome regional actor backed into a corner, with few options. For decades, Iran had built a vast proxy network—Hezbollah, the Houthis, Iraqi militias, Hamas, and the Assad regime in Syria—often referred to as the “ring of fire.” This network spanned multiple countries and controlled hundreds of thousands of rockets, missiles, and mortars.

At its center was Israel—seen by the Iranian regime (not incorrectly) as America’s strategic outpost in the region. With the Abraham Accords, Trump and Netanyahu had not crafted a diplomatic solution, but a strategic realignment: drawing Gulf states into open cooperation with Israel and sidelining Iran. The Saudis appeared ready to formalize ties, having already become Israel’s de facto security partner in the regional struggle against Tehran.

One of Hamas’ key motives on October 7 was to derail the Abraham Accords. In that, they nearly succeeded. Israel’s campaign in Gaza forced the Saudis to publicly express outrage—even if privately, they may have approved of Israel’s actions.

But with Israel’s strikes on Iran, the entire post–October 7 equation has shifted again. The Assad regime has collapsed, leaving Russia out in the cold. Hamas is no longer a coherent paramilitary force, but an insurgency with delusions of governance. Hezbollah, which just months ago held Lebanese politics in a chokehold, now finds itself pleading with the Lebanese government to shield it from further Israeli attacks.

The question of timing remains. Some note that the strikes came on the 61st day after President Trump issued a 60-day ultimatum to Iran to reach a nuclear deal. On this, Israeli military theorist Eado Hecht told me:

“The negotiations reached an impasse—both sides had mutually exclusive red lines. The Americans demanded zero enrichment capacity in Iran; the Iranians insisted on keeping it. The Iranians were haggling like expert bazaar merchants. But time was running out—they were nearing the point of no return.”

In a statement on Truth Social, Trump wrote:

“I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal. I told them, in the strongest of words, ‘just do it,’ but no matter how hard they tried, no matter how close they got, they just couldn’t get [a nuclear deal] done.”

One Israeli source, not authorized to speak on the record, told me the campaign is expected to last about a week. Iran is now orienting itself to the new reality: replacing killed officials, assessing damage, and planning a response. After that, Israel may strike again. The source expects Iran to activate terror cells—likely lone wolves—to attack Jewish or Israeli targets abroad.

The story is fast-developing. But one thing is clear: this is a major turning point in the Middle East.